Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

17 0x17d4…9409 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover

Total PnL +$305 (+34%) realized +$307 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%13W / 13L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day13.8pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit63%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+56.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+72.9%	+56.4%	50%	50%	+14.7%
≤30d	26	+72.9%	+56.4%	50%	50%	+14.7%
≤90d	26	+72.9%	+56.4%	50%	50%	+14.7%
all	26	+72.9%	+56.4%	50%	50%	+14.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+56.4%	50%	+14.7%
10%	+41.4%	50%	+3.7%
15%	+27.8%	38%	-6.3%
20%	+15.2%	31%	-15.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +73% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +149% → late -4% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$34 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized+$307

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses13 / 13

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)26 / 27

History coverage3d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day13.8

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	Over	12¢	12¢	$48	$46	−$2 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$71	−$70	-98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$30	+$77	+259%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$40	−$39	-98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$20	−$19	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$25	−$24	-98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$48	−$48	-98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia?	Jun 19	$11	−$11	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$40	−$39	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$43	−$42	-98%
Canada leading at halftime?	Jun 18	$36	+$24	+67%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$20	+$14	+70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$30	−$9	-30%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$20	+$77	+388%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$40	+$19	+47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$29	−$28	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$35	+$14	+40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$48	−$48	-99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$20	+$365	+1843%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$38	−$37	-99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$30	−$29	-99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$69	+$19	+27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$16	+$12	+74%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$20	+$11	+58%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$36	+$11	+30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$29	+$7	+24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$10	+$19	+197%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	12¢	$49	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	24¢	$11	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$107	2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	50¢	$59	3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	27¢	$30	3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	48¢	$40	4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	18¢	$20	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	23¢	$25	5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$14	7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia?	BUY Yes	4¢	$11	7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$35	8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$40	8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$43	27h
Canada leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$34	29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$20	30h
Canada leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	59¢	$36	30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	20¢	$21	31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$97	31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	94¢	$58	31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	20¢	$20	31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	21¢	$10	32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$40	32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	32¢	$20	32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$29	36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$48	47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$20	2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$29	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$35	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$385	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.21 · official $46.21 (match) · 48 history records