Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17d3…586b sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,988 (-13%) realized −$2,019 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$452
7 days+$234
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,818
crypto 2% −$238
other 1% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.3% -5.6% 57% 43% -4.8%
≤30d 21 -12.9% -21.2% 43% 33% -11.2%
≤90d 33 -31.9% -38.4% 33% 27% -30.8%
all 48 -28.5% -35.3% 35% 29% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 29% -22.9%
10% -41.5% 27% -30.3%
15% -47.1% 23% -37.1%
20% -52.3% 21% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -42% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$198 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$2,019
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage241d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 87¢ 100¢ $207 $238 +$31 (+15%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 25¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $310 −$105 -34%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $205 +$8 +4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $235 −$235 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $429 +$28 +6%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$147 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $412 +$123 +30%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $337 +$262 +78%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $409 −$406 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $341 +$235 +69%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $641 +$15 +2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $648 −$25 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $421 +$231 +55%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $189 +$251 +133%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $172 −$170 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $52 −$51 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $363 −$361 -100%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $338 +$245 +72%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 10 $339 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $345 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs FURY (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Apr 29 $701 +$305 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $485 −$166 -34%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O Apr 07 $184 −$184 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $174 −$174 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 06 $252 −$252 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 06 $542 −$542 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Skele (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Apr 06 $36 +$5 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 06 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 28 $245 −$245 -100%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs World Sports Invictus Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 28 $241 −$241 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $683 −$683 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O Mar 26 $460 −$18 -4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $723 +$407 +56%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 16 $279 +$436 +156%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 16 $400 +$15 +4%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 15 $356 −$356 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 15 $657 +$538 +82%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 14 $348 +$309 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 10 $209 −$209 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Mar 10 $283 +$282 +99%
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Dec 19 $327 −$327 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 19 $365 −$365 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) Dec 19 $205 −$205 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 19 $271 −$271 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 12 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $351 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 87¢ $33 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 87¢ $175 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 41¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 41¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 41¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 41¢ $77 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 41¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 41¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 41¢ $41 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $686 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 25¢ $0 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 25¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 25¢ $168 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 55¢ $27 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 55¢ $185 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $205 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 10¢ $36 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 10¢ $4 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 39¢ $124 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 39¢ $8 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 39¢ $64 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 62¢ $310 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $12 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 45¢ $221 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 45¢ $3 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 45¢ $225 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 45¢ $1 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 10¢ $51 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $366 4h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Ground Zero 55¢ $34 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.79 · official $238.34 (match) · 368 history records