Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17d2…ff1f crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-10%) realized −$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%45W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$24
other 15% +$1
sports 11% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 50% -3.2%
≤30d 88 -16.1% -24.1% 51% 48% -17.9%
≤90d 90 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 47% -20.3%
all 90 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 47% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 47% -20.3%
10% -32.9% 39% -27.9%
15% -39.4% 30% -34.9%
20% -45.3% 22% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses45 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -47%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +81%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.02 · official $3.02 (match) · 188 history records