Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17cd…7423 sports 1470 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 201d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38,280 (-5%) realized −$38,297 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%642W / 807L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$576per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$4,676est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$9,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 202d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$26,998
other 5% +$12,843
world 0% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +28.6% +16.4% 56% 56% -18.8%
≤30d 179 +29.2% +16.9% 51% 50% -4.3%
≤90d 616 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 40% -15.0%
all 1449 -2.1% -11.4% 44% 44% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 44% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 41% -20.0%
15% -27.6% 38% -27.7%
20% -34.7% 33% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$562) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$552 vs −$462 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$9,229
Realized−$38,297
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses642 / 807
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$4,676
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1449 / 1470
History coverage202d ⚠
Avg bet$576
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 66¢ 66¢ $8,143 $8,093 −$50 (-1%)
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Under 40¢ 45¢ $560 $630 +$70 (+12%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 75¢ 74¢ $510 $506 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO1) Jun 21 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-30? Jun 21 $230 −$230 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) Jun 21 $784 −$784 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Leo Team (BO3) Jun 21 $143 −$143 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3) Jun 21 $1,328 −$1,328 -100%
Fulham vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $292 −$292 -100%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 21 $246 −$246 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $635 +$753 +119%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $380 +$821 +216%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $404 +$1,312 +325%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $3,979 −$3,901 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $386 −$377 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $1,453 +$470 +32%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $914 +$853 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $1,493 +$509 +34%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $83 +$302 +365%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $640 +$550 +86%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $379 +$301 +79%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $127 +$170 +134%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $781 −$763 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $321 +$487 +152%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori Jun 16 $101 +$253 +250%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $2,703 −$2,647 -98%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 16 $89 −$87 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $505 +$385 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $205 +$53 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $473 +$497 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $644 +$308 +48%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $317 +$132 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $247 +$129 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $319 +$82 +26%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $53 −$52 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $510 +$1,272 +250%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $27 +$97 +365%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $318 +$197 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $218 +$82 +38%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $228 −$226 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $128 −$125 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,642 −$1,612 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $71 +$23 +32%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $35 +$108 +307%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $317 +$653 +206%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $114 +$206 +180%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $57 +$70 +124%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $115 −$113 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $78 +$161 +206%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,058 +$461 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 40¢ $291 51m
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 40¢ $279 58m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 75¢ $514 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $2,016 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $17 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $7 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $7 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $8 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $16 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $22 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $16 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $41 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $46 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $10 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $4 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $12 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $19 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $9 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $3 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $2,075 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $119 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $460 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $96 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $0 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $4 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $8 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $3,188 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $404 32h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $3,979 33h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY summer bear 18¢ $17 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,229.42 · official $9,229.42 (match) · 3500 history records