Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x17cb…9276
other · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)33 / 42
History coverage48d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 9 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +155%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$1 -57%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 09 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3 +$2 +88%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $3 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 02 $2 $0 -5%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 02 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 +$2 +70%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 02 $3 +$8 +231%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 02 $5 $0 -7%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Leeds United FC leading at halftime? May 01 $1 +$1 +88%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1 −$1 -74%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 01 $2 $0 -12%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 01 $5 $0 -6%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $1 $0 -3%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $3 +$3 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% −$16
sports 32% −$4
crypto 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 20d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 25d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 27d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 27d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 27d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 27d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 27d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 27d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 29d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 31d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 32d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 33d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +154.6% +130.4% 100% 100% +130.4%
≤30d 6 -36.6% -42.6% 33% 17% -42.3%
≤90d 33 -17.7% -25.6% 30% 27% -28.2%
all 33 -17.7% -25.6% 30% 27% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 27% -28.2%
10% -32.7% 24% -35.1%
15% -39.2% 21% -41.4%
20% -45.2% 21% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.57 · official $18.58 (match) · 106 history records