Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:03:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17ca…f1f8 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$140 (-6%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$122
world 37% −$16
economics 12% $0
other 6% $0
sports 6% −$4
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 23 -2.7% -12.0% 35% 0% -10.4%
all 33 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 6% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 6% -15.0%
10% -23.3% 3% -23.1%
15% -30.7% 0% -30.6%
20% -37.5% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage529d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $65 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $6 −$2 -35%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $23 −$5 -20%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $233 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $233 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $282 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $233 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $256 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $246 −$14 -6%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Dec 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Florian Lipowitz win the Tour de France 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $3 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump say Climate during his presser with Starmer on Feb 2 Mar 04 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Trump say "Trump" 3 or more times at CPAC conference on Saturday? Feb 27 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 26 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $118 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $35 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $35 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $13 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $19 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $33 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $33 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $32 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $31 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records