Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
17 0x17c9…19b7 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+6%) realized +$305 · open −$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$284
14 days+$284
30 days+$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$9
other 30% +$225
sports 29% −$189
politics 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +59.9% +44.7% 100% 100% +41.6%
≤30d 3 +59.9% +44.7% 100% 100% +41.6%
≤90d 3 +59.9% +44.7% 100% 100% +41.6%
all 11 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 55% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 55% +1.7%
10% -16.6% 45% -8.0%
15% -24.7% 36% -16.9%
20% -32.0% 27% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$76 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$305
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage161d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 1¢ $200 $2 −$197 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 +$80 +78%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $202 +$96 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $197 +$107 +54%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Jan 30 $203 −$203 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 30 $239 −$36 -15%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Jan 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 30 $202 +$49 +24%
FC Barcelona vs. FC København: Both Teams to Score Jan 28 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during r Jan 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? Jan 28 $100 +$21 +21%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 27 $99 +$209 +211%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL 99¢ $183 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $298 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 55¢ $103 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 67¢ $202 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $305 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $197 28h
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $203 143d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $203 143d
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 144d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $239 145d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $239 146d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 80¢ $202 146d
FC Barcelona vs. FC København: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $88 146d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during r BUY No 0¢ $10 146d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during r BUY No 1¢ $30 146d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $121 146d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $100 147d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $308 147d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $50 161d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $49 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.50 · official $2.50 (match) · 22 history records