Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17c9…d67a sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95 (-4%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$88
14 days+$70
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$97
other 10% −$48
crypto 0% −$3
politics 0% −$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +33.3% +20.6% 64% 64% +34.2%
≤30d 13 +12.8% +2.0% 54% 54% -6.7%
≤90d 25 -14.9% -23.0% 36% 36% -17.0%
all 65 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 37% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 37% -12.3%
10% -18.8% 32% -20.6%
15% -26.7% 31% -28.3%
20% -33.9% 29% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$30 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 40
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage140d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $49 +$7 +15%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $28 −$27 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $8 +$19 +234%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $40 +$68 +172%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$20 +99%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $9 +$11 +124%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $7 +$2 +29%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$4 +94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$17 -80%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $73 −$71 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Apr 16 $111 −$109 -98%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Apr 16 $5 −$4 -81%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 16 $40 −$39 -97%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 16 $45 +$156 +346%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $17 −$17 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $49 −$1 -2%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st D Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner Apr 15 $31 +$29 +94%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $4 −$4 -97%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ludwig & MoistCr1TiKaL win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? Feb 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs FURIA Esports - Map 4 Winner Feb 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs FURIA Esports - Map 3 Winner Feb 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Valorant: MIBR vs FURIA Esports - Map 2 Winner Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports - Map 4 Winner Feb 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports - Map 3 Winner Feb 13 $63 +$42 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 13 $3 −$2 -62%
LoL: NightBirds vs Meavedron (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Feb 12 $7 −$3 -50%
LoL: NightBirds vs Meavedron - Game 1 Winner Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ZennIT vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Feb 10 $2 −$1 -50%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $139 +$25 +18%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Feb 08 $406 −$406 -100%
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Feb 08 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Feb 08 $50 +$25 +50%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $132 +$82 +62%
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $298 −$227 -76%
LoL: LOS vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Feb 08 $50 +$28 +55%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $384 +$40 +10%
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Feb 08 $13 +$22 +171%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Shifters (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $4 +$9 +213%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $28 +$87 +310%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $50 +$165 +330%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 32m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 36m
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $28 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $27 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $8 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $108 21h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $40 26h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $40 28h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $20 29h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $9 45h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL Yes 27¢ $9 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL 98¢ $7 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 50¢ $4 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 8¢ $73 24d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 49d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 49d
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Shopify Rebellion 21¢ $111 68d
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 1¢ $1 68d
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 5¢ $5 68d
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 25¢ $35 68d
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY SU Esports 12¢ $40 68d
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega BUY Team Vitality 7¢ $8 68d
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Eternal Fire 55¢ $201 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records