Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17c9…3ad1 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate76%48W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$4
other 5% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 63 -1.5% -10.9% 76% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses48 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage506d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 30 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? May 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $111 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 23 above $670? Mar 01 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 23 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $111 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $660 on February 17? Feb 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 9? Feb 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $1 $0 -0%
US forces in Iran before August? Jul 03 $2 −$2 -77%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 03 $2 $0 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jul 03 $2 $0 -16%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Jul 03 $3 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jack Dorsey confirm he is Satoshi before May? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $114 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $114 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $114 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $114 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $114 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $114 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $114 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $113 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $113 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $113 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $113 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $113 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $113 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $113 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $113 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $113 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $112 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $112 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $112 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $112 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $112 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $112 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $112 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $112 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $111 106d
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 23 above $670? BUY No 100¢ $111 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $111 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? BUY No 100¢ $111 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? BUY No 100¢ $111 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? BUY No 100¢ $111 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.20 · official $114.20 (match) · 128 history records