Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x17c9…4bb7 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+6%) realized +$55 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$42
14 days+$27
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$33
other 32% +$7
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -4.7% -13.7% 42% 40% -4.1%
≤30d 61 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 43% -5.7%
≤90d 61 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 43% -5.7%
all 61 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 43% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 43% -5.7%
10% -22.2% 43% -14.7%
15% -29.8% 43% -23.0%
20% -36.6% 36% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 34
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage22d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 45¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 23¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$24 +78%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 +$28 +556%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$12 +58%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$4 +132%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $6 +$8 +131%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$6 +101%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$91 +178%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$43 +121%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$21 +51%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$12 +67%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$37 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 +$20 +112%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +37%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$17 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$12 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $15 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $54 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $20 2h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $20 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $30 5h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 91¢ $34 13h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 86¢ $32 13h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $3 14h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 54¢ $20 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 81¢ $38 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $20 15h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan $2 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 17h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador $0 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $5 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 21¢ $5 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $5 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 23h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $2 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 40h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $8 40h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $15 42h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 14¢ $7 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $7 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.01 · official $34.01 (match) · 106 history records