Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17c4…9277 other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%4W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$2
sports 25% −$3
other 22% −$5
economics 11% −$1
crypto 10% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
all 132 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage168d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -1%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 25 $52 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 11 $219 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 10 $115 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $4 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 03 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $41 1h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $33 8h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 8h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $43 13d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 13d
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 95¢ $51 27d
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 96¢ $24 27d
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 96¢ $29 27d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 34d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 130d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 130d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $18 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 130d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $18 130d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $20 130d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $20 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 130d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $50 130d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 130d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $48 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 130d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $48 130d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 95¢ $21 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 130d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 96¢ $23 130d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 96¢ $44 130d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 376 history records