Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17c1…0904 crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-2%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate96%185W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$31
14 days+$86
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$3
other 21% −$49
sports 11% −$71
tech 1% +$3
weather 1% $0
politics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 12% -5.6%
≤30d 41 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 27% -1.2%
≤90d 192 +1.5% -8.2% 96% 12% -11.2%
all 192 +1.5% -8.2% 96% 12% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 12% -11.2%
10% -17.0% 5% -19.7%
15% -25.0% 3% -27.5%
20% -32.4% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$49 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses185 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage75d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$14 +46%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$27 +74%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 06 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 28 $9 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 26 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 25 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 41h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Bosnia-Herzegovina 100¢ $9 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Bosnia-Herzegovina 100¢ $30 5d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 100¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 436 history records