Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x17c0…fa66 crypto 419 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%276W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$33
other 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -4.5% -13.6% 69% 26% -11.4%
≤30d 163 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 29% -12.7%
≤90d 416 +6.3% -3.8% 66% 29% -12.4%
all 416 +6.3% -3.8% 66% 29% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 29% -12.4%
10% -13.0% 21% -20.8%
15% -21.4% 16% -28.5%
20% -29.1% 12% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses276 / 140
Open positions3
Markets (closed)416 / 419
History coverage46d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 38¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+96%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 71¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+18%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 81¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 63¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.75 · official $9.86 (match) · 1120 history records