Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17c0…0426 weather 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$12 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 67% -17.3%
≤30d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 67% -17.3%
≤90d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 67% -17.3%
all 3 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 67% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 67% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 0% -25.2%
15% -29.2% 0% -32.4%
20% -36.1% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 −$23 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL Yes 57¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $58 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 83¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 38¢ $27 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.72 · official $19.59 (match) · 23 history records