Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
17 0x17bf…6731 sports 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 1209d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15,858 (+16%) realized +$16,144 · open −$286
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate70%77W / 33L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$734per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,793
7 days+$459
14 days+$1,530
30 days+$4,985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$2,346
crypto 30% +$5,254
other 16% +$10,342
sports 13% +$1,052
economics 5% +$1,754
tech 3% +$3
world 1% −$266
culture 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +18.7% +7.4% 69% 33% -6.9%
≤30d 75 +20.7% +9.2% 69% 35% +7.2%
≤90d 87 +20.3% +8.8% 67% 31% +10.6%
all 110 +16.1% +5.1% 70% 32% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 32% +6.1%
10% -5.0% 24% -4.1%
15% -14.2% 21% -13.3%
20% -22.6% 18% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$292 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1209d coverage
Net worth$5,082
Realized+$16,144
Unrealized−$286
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses77 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions27
Markets (closed)110 / 137
History coverage1209d
Avg bet$734
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $1,350 $1,032 −$318 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $917 $916 −$0 (-0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $474 $485 +$11 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $472 $472 −$0 (-0%)
Will the announcers say "Viking" during the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 85¢ 83¢ $283 $276 −$6 (-2%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 39¢ 52¢ $195 $262 +$67 (+35%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" 20+ times during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $258 $256 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 60¢ 62¢ $128 $132 +$4 (+3%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 58¢ $130 $117 −$13 (-10%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 62¢ 56¢ $124 $113 −$11 (-9%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $120 $110 −$10 (-9%)
Will the match not air? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup Match? No 71¢ 76¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the match not air? No 100¢ 99¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match? No 66¢ 66¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Historic" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $65 $59 −$6 (-9%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match? No 49¢ 50¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Atmosphere" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) New Zealand 39¢ 36¢ $39 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 34¢ $42 $34 −$8 (-18%)
Will the announcers say "Really good play" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $31 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the New Zealand vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match? No 61¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World C Jun 26 $4 +$6 +164%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the match not air? Jun 26 $437 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Jun 26 $387 +$7 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $542 +$1,458 +269%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $152 +$98 +65%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $358 +$142 +40%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $348 +$152 +44%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World C Jun 26 $110 +$6 +5%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Jun 26 $3,675 +$85 +2%
Will the match not air? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $233 −$230 -99%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 26 $170 +$47 +27%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 26 $76 +$7 +9%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wo Jun 25 $82 +$1 +2%
Will the match not air? Jun 25 $1,469 +$3 +0%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the South Africa vs South Korea Jun 25 $30 +$61 +202%
Will the announcers say "Mexico" 5+ times during the South Africa vs S Jun 25 $72 +$14 +20%
Will the announcers say "History" during the South Africa vs South Kor Jun 25 $81 +$16 +20%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the South Africa vs South Kore Jun 25 $18 +$32 +178%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor Jun 25 $394 +$8 +2%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the South Africa vs South Kore Jun 25 $146 +$3 +2%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA W Jun 25 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wo Jun 25 $88 +$42 +48%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wor Jun 25 $437 +$236 +54%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wo Jun 25 $149 +$3 +2%
Will the match not air? Jun 25 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF Jun 24 $103 +$127 +124%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 24 $80 +$6 +8%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 24 $148 +$5 +3%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wo Jun 24 $234 −$233 -100%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Switzerland vs Can Jun 24 $24 +$26 +104%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Switzerland vs Can Jun 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 24 $53 +$30 +57%
Will the match not air? Jun 24 $113 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 24 $43 −$43 -99%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA W Jun 24 $127 −$125 -99%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 24 $77 −$76 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $105 −$104 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 24 $89 −$87 -98%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wo Jun 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the South Africa vs South Kor Jun 24 $45 −$44 -97%
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the South Af Jun 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Switzerland vs Can Jun 24 $82 −$81 -98%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF Jun 24 $69 −$69 -99%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA Jun 24 $64 +$136 +214%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Portugal vs Uzbe Jun 24 $89 +$13 +14%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wor Jun 24 $36 +$64 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia BUY No 66¢ $4 12m
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $55 14m
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia BUY No 66¢ $62 51m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $473 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $919 1h
Will the announcers say "Messi" 20+ times during the Jordan vs Argenti BUY Yes 99¢ $258 1h
Will the match not air? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Really good play" during the Croatia vs Ghana BUY Yes 40¢ $32 1h
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the New Zeal BUY No 61¢ $12 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FI BUY No 49¢ $55 1h
Will the announcers say "Historic" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA BUY Yes 55¢ $66 1h
Will the announcers say "Atmosphere" during the Jordan vs Argentina FI BUY Yes 56¢ $37 1h
Will the match not air? BUY No 100¢ $106 1h
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia BUY No 66¢ $24 1h
Will the match not air? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Norway vs France FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $101 1h
Will the announcers say "Viking" during the Norway vs France FIFA Worl BUY Yes 85¢ $243 1h
Will the announcers say "Viking" during the Norway vs France FIFA Worl BUY Yes 85¢ $41 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $97 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $286 14h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 17h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY Yes 99¢ $205 17h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 10¢ $150 17h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $152 17h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $358 17h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 69¢ $348 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,081.87 · official $5,080.90 (match) · 627 history records