Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17be…e5b4 sports 554 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,983 (-5%) realized −$3,976 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%273W / 335L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day97.1pace
Fees−$747est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$2,051
crypto 26% −$2,911
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 -38.4% -44.3% 31% 27% -31.1%
≤30d 588 -18.4% -26.2% 45% 36% -15.9%
≤90d 608 -18.2% -26.0% 45% 36% -16.0%
all 608 -18.2% -26.0% 45% 36% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 36% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 28% -24.0%
15% -39.5% 21% -31.4%
20% -45.5% 17% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$88 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$3,976
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses273 / 335
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$747
Open positions9
Markets (closed)608 / 554
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$159
Trades / day97.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 20¢ 70¢ $9 $31 +$23 (+258%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 45¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 17¢ 16¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 87¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 26¢ 16¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-40%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 81¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 41¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 20¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Washington Nationals 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 267 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$58 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 78¢ $1 1m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 26¢ $8 9m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 93¢ $55 11m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 55¢ $4 11m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 41¢ $3 11m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) SELL Washington Nationals 64¢ $1 39m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 22¢ $2 42m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 87¢ $7 48m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 14¢ $1 50m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 50m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 19¢ $1 56m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 39¢ $1 58m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 17¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 18¢ $3 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 15¢ $0 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $2 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 14¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 21¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 18¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 18¢ $2 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 18¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 81¢ $4 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 19¢ $0 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 53¢ $3 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $3 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 19¢ $2 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 22¢ $3 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 30¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.83 · official $141.49 · 3500 history records