Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17bc…9013 crypto 876 markets active 4d ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$313 (-2%) realized −$313 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%570W / 496L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day131.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,076
7 days−$1,134
14 days−$1,228
30 days−$1,482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$349
sports 3% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 -47.7% -52.7% 36% 25% -34.9%
≤30d 1066 -22.8% -30.1% 53% 38% -19.5%
≤90d 1066 -22.8% -30.1% 53% 38% -19.5%
all 1066 -22.8% -30.1% 53% 38% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 38% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 15% -27.2%
15% -42.9% 8% -34.2%
20% -48.5% 4% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses570 / 496
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1066 / 876
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day131.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1066 Trades
no open positions (292 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 27? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down on April 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down on May 9? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on May 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on April 1? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records