Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17b6…af55 sports 272 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$363 (-9%) realized −$358 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%164W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$339
other 14% −$68
crypto 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +34.8% +22.0% 67% 58% +1.9%
≤30d 38 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 45% -22.6%
≤90d 267 -8.1% -16.9% 61% 60% -18.7%
all 267 -8.1% -16.9% 61% 60% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 60% -18.7%
10% -24.8% 49% -26.5%
15% -32.1% 30% -33.6%
20% -38.8% 13% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$358
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses164 / 103
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 272
History coverage47d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 −$3 -58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 +$13 +303%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +70%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $5 $0 +9%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5) May 21 $6 −$5 -92%
Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5) May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5) May 21 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: SK Brann (-1.5) May 20 $7 +$3 +35%
Aalesunds FK vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5 May 20 $11 +$4 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $9 $0 -4%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $32 +$8 +25%
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5 May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Anyang win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5) May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $11 +$4 +31%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) May 17 $11 +$4 +36%
Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 May 17 $4 +$6 +124%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 May 17 $5 +$5 +105%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $11 −$3 -28%
Spread: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC (-1.5) May 17 $14 +$6 +39%
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5) May 17 $14 +$6 +48%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5 May 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 16 $10 +$7 +72%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5 May 16 $5 +$4 +82%
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 May 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $14 +$6 +42%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $20 −$5 -24%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5 May 16 $5 −$4 -77%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5 May 16 $10 −$6 -64%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5 May 16 $10 −$8 -81%
Spread: Damac Saudi Club (-1.5) May 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-1.5) May 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 28m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 4¢ $1 29m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: I BUY 37¢ $5 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $5 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY 49¢ $5 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 18¢ $3 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $2 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 11¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 71¢ $4 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 56¢ $7 23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 83¢ $3 23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 83¢ $1 23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 83¢ $4 23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 83¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 26¢ $5 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 34h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $6 34h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 69¢ $7 39h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 35¢ $3 41h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $6 41h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $10 41h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $4 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $15.05 · 642 history records