Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x17b4…4d48 crypto 879 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$820 (-1%) realized −$820 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate62%541W / 334L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day83.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$225
14 days+$343
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$729
other 35% −$54
politics 24% +$407
tech 3% −$3
world 1% −$3
culture 0% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +0.1% -9.5% 44% 3% -9.1%
≤30d 703 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 875 -1.0% -10.5% 62% 2% -9.8%
all 875 -1.0% -10.5% 62% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 2% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$820
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses541 / 334
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)875 / 879
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day83.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 875 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $761 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $73 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $73 +$2 +3%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $724 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$3 +4%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $815 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $74 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 15 $181 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $71 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $74 +$2 +2%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $149 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$6 +10%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $281 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$7 +12%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $282 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $252 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $67 +$3 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$74 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $250 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $302 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$2 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 15 $471 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $623 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $230 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$3 +4%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $74 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $94 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $73 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $94 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $73 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $72 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $90 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $91 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $74 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 2h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $86 2h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $88 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $71 2h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $86 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.76 · official $229.76 (match) · 3500 history records