Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
17 0x17b2…6436 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$110 (+5%) realized +$84 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate80%47W / 12L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +18.6% +7.3% 81% 40% -4.6%
≤30d 59 +18.0% +6.7% 80% 39% -4.6%
≤90d 59 +18.0% +6.7% 80% 39% -4.6%
all 59 +18.0% +6.7% 80% 39% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 39% -4.6%
10% -3.5% 24% -13.8%
15% -12.8% 14% -22.1%
20% -21.4% 12% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$24 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses47 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage16d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 11¢ 50¢ $7 $33 +$26 (+376%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $71 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $43 +$20 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$5 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $45 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$12 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $48 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $45 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $61 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$28 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $47 +$12 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$33 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $72 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$41 +245%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $22 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $49 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $71 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $37 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $12 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $62 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $57 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.33 · official $33.33 (match) · 157 history records