Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17b0…927a crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate76%61W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.5% -27.2% 71% 43% -23.0%
≤30d 80 -8.5% -17.2% 76% 20% -9.8%
≤90d 80 -8.5% -17.2% 76% 20% -9.8%
all 80 -8.5% -17.2% 76% 20% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 20% -9.8%
10% -25.1% 5% -18.4%
15% -32.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -39.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses61 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage28d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 31 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 29 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 26 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 26 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 26 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 26 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 26 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 26 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 25 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 24 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 24 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 24 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 24 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 24 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 24 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 23 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 23 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 23 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 22 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 12¢ $1 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 86¢ $3 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 37¢ $1 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 54¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records