Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x17ad…684f crypto 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,418 (+9%) realized +$2,418 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%119W / 150L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$196
14 days−$828
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,229
other 1% −$140
sports 0% +$453
world 0% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -61.0% -64.7% 14% 14% -61.9%
≤30d 30 -28.3% -35.1% 27% 23% +0.4%
≤90d 108 +0.2% -9.3% 39% 38% +0.4%
all 269 +5.2% -4.9% 44% 43% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 43% -4.3%
10% -14.0% 43% -13.5%
15% -22.3% 42% -21.8%
20% -29.9% 42% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$94 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses119 / 150
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 269
History coverage112d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $91 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$91 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 26 $207 +$203 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 26 $210 +$465 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 26 $155 +$135 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $102 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 26 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 26 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 26 $316 +$806 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 26 $313 −$313 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 26 $102 +$453 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 19 $208 +$235 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 19 $103 +$90 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 06 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 06 $233 −$233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 06 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 02 $156 +$160 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 02 $42 +$38 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 02 $83 +$74 +89%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $42 +$72 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 01 $84 +$122 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 01 $105 +$168 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 01 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 01 $96 +$621 +649%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 01 $114 +$91 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 01 $104 +$109 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $100 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 714 history records