Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17ac…8951 politics 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% $0
politics 30% −$1
world 25% −$6
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 9 -5.2% -14.3% 44% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 9 -5.2% -14.3% 44% 0% -11.6%
all 32 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage267d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $59 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $25 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $58 −$3 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +5%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 13 $45 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $2 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $21 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $55 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $35 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $24 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $18 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $40 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $45 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $5 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $5 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $4 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $48 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $9 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $1 14d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 74¢ $3 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $16 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $40 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $58 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.47 · official $43.47 (match) · 170 history records