Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17aa…42fe world 212 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,794 (-50%) realized −$8,748 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%95W / 115L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,107
7 days−$7,687
14 days−$7,843
30 days−$7,680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$7,752
politics 0% −$11
other 0% −$1
finance 0% −$10
sports 0% −$13
crypto 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -60.2% -64.0% 15% 15% -78.9%
≤30d 39 -12.6% -20.9% 54% 46% -66.8%
≤90d 210 -21.0% -28.5% 45% 30% -66.1%
all 210 -21.0% -28.5% 45% 30% -66.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 30% -66.1%
10% -35.4% 17% -69.3%
15% -41.6% 12% -72.3%
20% -47.3% 5% -75.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$74 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$8,748
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses95 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)210 / 212
History coverage83d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $222 −$189 -85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $257 −$226 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $620 −$555 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $510 −$435 -85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,001 −$845 -84%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $255 −$136 -53%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $403 −$165 -41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,556 −$2,556 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 13 $100 −$14 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2,035 −$2,014 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $807 −$807 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $128 +$52 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $1,150 +$203 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $114 −$113 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 07 $127 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $110 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $318 −$318 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $250 +$96 +38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $219 +$95 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $206 +$55 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $110 +$22 +20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $121 +$18 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $20 +$12 +58%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $56 +$16 +29%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $18 +$8 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $101 +$75 +75%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 27 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $50 +$22 +45%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 25 $3 −$1 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $13 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $23 +$5 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $1 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $1 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $1 $0 +23%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 15 $1 $0 -42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 15 $1 −$1 -55%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 15 $1 $0 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 15 $3 $0 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 09 $1 −$1 -89%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 09 $1 $0 -43%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 09 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $100 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $2 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $5 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1,209 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $64 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $2,200 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $28 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No $31 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No $65 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No $75 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $156 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1,910 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $926 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $117 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $116 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $237 47h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $238 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $661 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $100 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 50¢ $86 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $86 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $200 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $200 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $82 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $200 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $100 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $100 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.71 · official $103.71 (match) · 712 history records