trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -4.5% | -13.6% | 75% | 17% | -9.5% |
| all | 23 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 87% | 13% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.0% | 13% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -18.6% | 9% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET | Down | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1,431 | $1,434 | +$3 (+0%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET | Jun 24 | $4,631 | +$13 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me | Jun 24 | $8,575 | −$12 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $8,602 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca | May 25 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont | May 25 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C or below on April 14 | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co | May 25 | $4 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting? | Apr 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? | Apr 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 13 | $2 | +$1 | +26% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Apr 13 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of February? | Mar 13 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 13 | $3 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 13 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting | Feb 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua | Feb 07 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? | Feb 07 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Jan 20 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 20 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 30? | Dec 30 | $3,254 | +$7 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? | Dec 30 | $4,491 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 23? | Dec 29 | $1 | $0 | +0% |