Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17a7…a8b0 sports 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$102 (-15%) realized +$24 · open −$126
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$11
14 days+$16
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$33
politics 38% −$97
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.5% +8.1% 44% 44% +11.7%
≤30d 13 +7.5% -2.8% 46% 46% -13.0%
≤90d 15 +14.2% +3.3% 53% 53% +6.2%
all 24 +7.5% -2.7% 50% 50% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 50% -10.2%
10% -12.0% 46% -18.8%
15% -20.5% 42% -26.7%
20% -28.3% 33% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage162d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$12 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$13 +250%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$10 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 +$2 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $31 +$4 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $14 −$14 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $31 +$25 +81%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 36.5 Feb 09 $35 +$17 +47%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $31 −$31 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $40 +$91 +228%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5 Jan 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $15 +$8 +54%
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5 Jan 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5 Jan 05 $30 +$41 +138%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 05 $122 −$97 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $6 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 9d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 43¢ $14 17d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 18d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 28d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $10 28d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 29d
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad SELL No 95¢ $20 30d
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad BUY No 70¢ $15 30d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 34d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $16 35d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $41 51d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $21 57d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $21 57d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $27 102d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 54¢ $25 102d
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 36.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.36 · official $49.94 (match) · 55 history records