trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +19.5% | +8.1% | 44% | 44% | +11.7% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +7.5% | -2.8% | 46% | 46% | -13.0% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +14.2% | +3.3% | 53% | 53% | +6.2% |
| all | 24 | +7.5% | -2.7% | 50% | 50% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.7% | 50% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -12.0% | 46% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -20.5% | 42% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -28.3% | 33% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 54¢ | 50¢ | $25 | $23 | −$2 (-8%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | No | 18¢ | 13¢ | $15 | $11 | −$4 (-28%) |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $15 | $9 | −$6 (-38%) |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $27 | $5 | −$21 (-81%) |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $90 | $1 | −$89 (-98%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-86%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 | Jun 14 | $5 | +$12 | +226% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $5 | +$13 | +250% |
| United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $6 | +$10 | +158% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 | Jun 12 | $4 | +$2 | +42% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 10 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $5 | +$6 | +109% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 03 | $31 | +$4 | +12% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $14 | −$14 | -98% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 | May 30 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad | May 18 | $15 | +$5 | +34% |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 13 | $31 | +$25 | +81% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 36.5 | Feb 09 | $35 | +$17 | +47% |
| Texans vs. Steelers | Jan 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Chargers vs. Patriots | Jan 12 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| 49ers vs. Eagles | Jan 12 | $40 | +$91 | +228% |
| 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5 | Jan 11 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Bills vs. Jaguars | Jan 11 | $15 | +$8 | +54% |
| Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5 | Jan 11 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5 | Jan 05 | $30 | +$41 | +138% |
| Ravens vs. Steelers | Jan 05 | $122 | −$97 | -79% |