Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17a6…d913 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$70 (+0%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate38%39W / 64L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days+$85
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$95
other 38% −$24
politics 15% −$12
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 30 -2.1% -11.5% 37% 3% -8.4%
≤90d 45 -2.1% -11.4% 38% 2% -9.0%
all 103 -4.0% -13.1% 38% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 7% -9.2%
10% -21.4% 5% -17.9%
15% -29.0% 5% -25.8%
20% -36.0% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses39 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage461d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 87¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $235 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $613 −$11 -2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $245 −$1 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $245 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $186 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $500 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $169 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $300 −$5 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $328 +$3 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $112 −$4 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $264 +$3 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $225 +$80 +36%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $182 −$3 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $500 +$23 +5%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $58 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $502 +$3 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $241 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $84 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $339 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $709 −$2 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $179 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $236 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $490 +$4 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $342 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $153 +$4 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $170 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $159 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $111 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $304 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $120 −$11 -10%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1,935 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $922 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $1,844 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,013 +$1 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 29 $3 $0 -5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 26 $12 $0 -1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $176 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $235 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $21 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $33 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $46 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $34 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $116 36h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $105 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $139 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $245 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 47h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $88 47h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $149 47h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $141 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $104 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $245 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $245 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $69 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $186 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $186 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.00 (match) · 534 history records