Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17a5…2f8a other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,216 (-14%) realized −$1,897 · open −$319
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$506per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$384
7 days−$1,877
14 days−$1,876
30 days−$1,878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$2,869
politics 23% +$261
crypto 20% −$317
sports 12% +$743
world 9% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -30.0% -36.6% 41% 18% -23.8%
≤30d 23 -22.7% -30.1% 35% 13% -23.1%
≤90d 23 -22.7% -30.1% 35% 13% -23.1%
all 23 -22.7% -30.1% 35% 13% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 13% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 13% -30.5%
15% -42.9% 13% -37.2%
20% -48.5% 9% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$273 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,962
Realized−$1,897
Unrealized−$319
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)23 / 31
History coverage16d
Avg bet$506
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $994 $966 −$28 (-3%)
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $391 $390 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $172 $171 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $382 $163 −$219 (-57%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $188 $154 −$34 (-18%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 17¢ $34 $13 −$21 (-62%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $388 −$385 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $983 −$19 -2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,205 +$1,137 +94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,945 −$2,938 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $297 −$20 -7%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $298 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $349 +$141 +40%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,249 +$671 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$90 -89%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $312 −$308 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $209 −$205 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $3,074 +$265 +9%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 07 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $196 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $91 +$4 +4%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 03 $278 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $174 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $87 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $388 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $164 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $107 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $830 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $144 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $145 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $145 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $29 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $255 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $78 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $95 39h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 39h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 39h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $127 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,961.58 · official $1,961.38 (match) · 244 history records