Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17a4…4089 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
other 29% $0
politics 15% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.6% -5.3% 33% 33% -8.0%
≤30d 17 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 17 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 6% -9.4%
all 54 -0.0% -9.5% 35% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage289d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $76 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $18 +$3 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $54 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 -21%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 26 $1 $0 -26%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $2 +$1 +35%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $6 $0 -1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $27 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $24 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sharon Horgan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Dram Sep 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $33 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $7 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $0 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $41 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $18 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $13 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $21 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $10 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records