Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x179e…2fe3 sports 402 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$459 (-21%) realized −$448 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%234W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$13
14 days−$307
30 days−$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 41% −$281
sports 21% −$23
other 19% −$175
world 6% +$11
politics 4% −$7
culture 3% −$6
crypto 3% −$4
tech 1% +$2
finance 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -4.0% -13.1% 63% 55% -15.1%
≤30d 219 -18.0% -25.8% 59% 33% -34.1%
≤90d 358 -15.6% -23.6% 63% 36% -30.3%
all 374 -14.3% -22.4% 63% 37% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 37% -29.8%
10% -29.9% 24% -36.6%
15% -36.6% 16% -42.7%
20% -42.9% 10% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses234 / 140
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions28
Markets (closed)374 / 402
History coverage92d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? No 71¢ 100¢ $12 $16 +$5 (+40%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 91¢ 76¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 76¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16? No 87¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Chirayu Rana divorced? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 80¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 74¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? No 82¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$10 +465%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$5 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $3 28m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 87¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 51¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 49¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $6 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $6 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.97 · official $118.08 (match) · 1131 history records