Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x179e…18ee other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 25% −$23
politics 8% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$9
world 4% −$2
economics 3% −$3
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage137d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $566 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $303 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 13 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $363 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $329 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $462 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $190 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $392 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $400 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $231 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $597 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $755 −$2 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $205 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 3h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 12h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $6 13h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 18h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 19h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 23h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 28h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 30h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 31h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 36h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $58 37h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 40h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 42h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 43h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 46h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.11 · official $57.11 (match) · 1431 history records