Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x179c…e786 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$5
other 24% −$1
politics 13% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 23% 15% -11.0%
≤90d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 23% 15% -11.0%
all 36 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 6% -10.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage323d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 52¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 77¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $49 −$5 -10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $6 −$1 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $4 $0 -4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 06 $4 $0 +5%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $16 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $19 $0 -2%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $3 $0 -8%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 05 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $42 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $42 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $38 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $43 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $6 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $6 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $42 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $42 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $41 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $35 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $35 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.43 · official $42.12 (match) · 114 history records