Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x179b…a26a crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$289 (-14%) realized −$239 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%29W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$185
14 days−$241
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$388
crypto 23% −$52
sports 21% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -16.0% -24.0% 43% 43% -21.4%
≤30d 61 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 38% -22.2%
≤90d 79 -9.3% -18.0% 37% 35% -23.7%
all 79 -9.3% -18.0% 37% 35% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 35% -23.7%
10% -25.8% 30% -31.0%
15% -33.0% 25% -37.7%
20% -39.5% 22% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 50
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage77d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $121 +$49 +40%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$27 +67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$96 +468%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +20%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$60 +1457%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$46 -89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$17 +33%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $99 −$78 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $60 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $170 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $121 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $80 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $8.02 · 132 history records