Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x179b…801a crypto 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-8%) realized −$68 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate58%49W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day104.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$103
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -17.8% -25.6% 58% 30% -20.5%
≤30d 84 -17.8% -25.6% 58% 30% -20.5%
≤90d 84 -17.8% -25.6% 58% 30% -20.5%
all 84 -17.8% -25.6% 58% 30% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 30% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 19% -28.1%
15% -39.3% 11% -35.1%
20% -45.2% 8% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses49 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day104.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Down 48¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 69¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $90 −$18 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $69 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $33 +$8 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.76 · official $5.76 (match) · 302 history records