Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x179a…b41a world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$656 (-20%) realized −$468 · open −$188
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$19
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$185
other 32% +$35
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -11.7% -20.2% 69% 8% -8.5%
≤30d 14 -10.0% -18.6% 71% 14% -7.9%
≤90d 14 -10.0% -18.6% 71% 14% -7.9%
all 14 -10.0% -18.6% 71% 14% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 14% -7.9%
10% -26.4% 7% -16.8%
15% -33.5% 7% -24.8%
20% -40.0% 7% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$468
Unrealized−$188
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage14d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 91¢ 99¢ $90 $98 +$8 (+8%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 45¢ 15¢ $294 $97 −$197 (-67%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 74¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 86¢ 100¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 80¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 89¢ 99¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $282 +$12 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $975 +$24 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $97 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +126%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $70 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $88 +$11 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $294 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $294 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $282 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $277 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,000 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $999 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 76¢ $12 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $90 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $97 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $97 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $50 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $20 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $107 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? SELL No $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 96¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $10 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $975 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $70 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $7 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $7 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $105 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $105 7d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 89¢ $88 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $100 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.55 · official $289.55 (match) · 39 history records