Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1799…ecff sports 255 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%109W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$8
sports 32% +$27
world 11% +$15
weather 9% −$27
politics 3% −$5
tech 2% −$2
crypto 2% −$3
culture 1% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 57% -8.4%
≤30d 207 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 49% -9.1%
≤90d 207 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 49% -9.1%
all 207 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 49% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 49% -9.1%
10% -24.4% 40% -17.8%
15% -31.7% 32% -25.8%
20% -38.4% 26% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses109 / 98
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions48
Markets (closed)207 / 255
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in June? Yes 78¢ 98¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+26%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 88¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 71¢ 78¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$2 +34%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$13 +54%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +197%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$13 -84%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$10 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $10 +$10 +93%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +63%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 +$6 +163%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-31? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -89%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $6 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $6 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $1 29h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $67 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $53 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.13 · official $280.09 (match) · 459 history records