Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1799…3ca9
weather · 876 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$12 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses744 / 108
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions24
Markets (closed)852 / 876
History coverage47d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 24 History 852 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$57
14 days−$32
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 24¢ 19¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? No 78¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 64¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 91¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 86¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 85¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 87¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? No 68¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 66¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? No 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 81¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $7 +$2 +27%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 89% −$3
sports 9% +$21
economics 0% −$5
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -7.6% -16.4% 81% 40% -26.1%
≤30d 433 +1.7% -8.0% 87% 40% -7.4%
≤90d 852 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 35% -8.9%
all 852 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 35% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 35% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 20% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 8% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.50 · official $63.47 (match) · 3500 history records