Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1798…3c1c crypto 328 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,014 (-10%) realized −$1,014 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%155W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days−$1,980
14 days−$1,552
30 days−$1,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$553
other 34% −$605
sports 10% −$127
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -48.6% -53.5% 20% 16% -45.2%
≤30d 119 -22.7% -30.1% 33% 28% -28.7%
≤90d 179 -14.6% -22.7% 45% 33% -23.1%
all 318 -10.8% -19.3% 49% 36% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 36% -21.5%
10% -27.0% 23% -29.0%
15% -34.0% 16% -35.8%
20% -40.5% 11% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,014
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses155 / 163
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)318 / 328
History coverage96d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 318 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $67 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $402 −$88 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$47 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $200 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $19 +$10 +50%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$12 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$7 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$5 -9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $204 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +37%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a dr Jun 21 $10 +$37 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$14 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 29¢ $31 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 10h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 28¢ $102 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 53¢ $238 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 67¢ $305 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $83 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $30.00 · 1481 history records