Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x1798…fbf4 crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate67%55W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$15
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$2
world 34% −$7
other 11% +$4
politics 10% +$5
tech 5% +$5
sports 4% −$25
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -28.5% -35.3% 64% 9% -7.9%
≤30d 50 +20.0% +8.6% 68% 24% -6.3%
≤90d 80 +6.5% -3.6% 66% 19% -10.6%
all 82 +6.8% -3.3% 67% 20% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 20% -10.3%
10% -12.6% 11% -18.9%
15% -21.0% 6% -26.7%
20% -28.8% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses55 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)82 / 101
History coverage98d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 60¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 76¢ 85¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+13%)
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? No 69¢ 92¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 48¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 49¢ 62¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 60¢ 38¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 34¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-40%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 15 $40 +$3 +9%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +60%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $57 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $49 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +83%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $51 +$5 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co May 31 $39 +$8 +21%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $41 +$5 +13%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $11 +$1 +12%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -62%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 25 $45 $0 -1%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 20 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 20 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1 +$18 +1790%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $44 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 60¢ $1 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes $0 2d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 92¢ $5 2d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down $0 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 41¢ $1 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 64¢ $6 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $1 4d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? SELL Down 91¢ $11 6d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 90¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $40 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $57 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.63 · official $145.64 (match) · 357 history records