Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1796…f43f crypto 887 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%549W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$33
14 days−$1,163
30 days−$1,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$7
other 0% −$16
weather 0% −$1
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +27.1% +15.0% 60% 60% -18.3%
≤30d 506 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 41% -46.7%
≤90d 521 -12.7% -21.0% 44% 41% -34.3%
all 887 +5.5% -4.5% 62% 42% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 42% -9.6%
10% -13.7% 35% -18.3%
15% -22.0% 26% -26.2%
20% -29.6% 19% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses549 / 338
Open positions0
Markets (closed)887 / 887
History coverage124d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 887 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +80%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +71%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 3286 history records