Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1795…b444 other 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$36
sports 25% −$17
politics 8% −$7
crypto 7% −$4
economics 6% −$6
culture 6% −$4
world 4% −$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage125d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $292 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $385 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $427 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $190 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $212 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $319 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $419 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $465 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $266 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $392 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 12m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $2 13m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 1h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 5h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 7h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 9h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 10h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 11h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 13h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 14h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 23h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 26h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 29h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 31h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 32h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 34h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 41h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 42h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 45h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 47h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.49 · official $50.49 (match) · 1273 history records