Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1795…f815 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+1%) realized +$190 · open −$104
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%51W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$13
14 days+$23
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$63
crypto 27% +$11
tech 23% +$33
finance 5% +$2
world 5% +$17
sports 2% −$20
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 44 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 51 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 51 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses51 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage52d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 29 above $10? Yes 99¢ 90¢ $223 $202 −$20 (-9%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 29 above $7.00? No 99¢ 90¢ $153 $140 −$14 (-9%)
Will Ethena reach $0.12 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 29 above $7.50? No 99¢ 51¢ $142 $73 −$69 (-48%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $2.00? Jun 26 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $7.00? Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$235 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 26 $115 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $67 +$1 +2%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $164 +$2 +1%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $150 +$2 +1%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $135 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $132 +$7 +6%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $109 +$1 +0%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Wipr 2 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $278 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $536 +$10 +2%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $94 +$6 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $146 +$1 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.75 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $266 +$14 +5%
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in May? Jun 01 $302 +$1 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in May? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 01 $398 +$2 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +3%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 30 $43 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.00 in May? May 30 $91 $0 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $174 in May? May 30 $101 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $498 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$260 on the final day of trading of the w May 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $260? May 22 $406 +$4 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $265? May 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? May 18 $819 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $818 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 May 4-10? May 11 $809 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethena reach $0.12 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 29 above $10? BUY Yes 99¢ $223 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 29 above $7.00? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 29 above $7.00? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 29 above $7.50? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 29 above $7.50? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$235 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $115 3d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 3d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $7.00? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $2.00? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 6d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 10d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 10d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 10d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 10d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $90 10d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 11d
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 11d
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $65 11d
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 11d
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 11d
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 11d
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 11d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 11d
Will Wipr 2 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $278 12d
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on BUY No 100¢ $56 12d
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $89 13d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.73 · official $540.73 (match) · 123 history records