Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1794…ed1a
other · 24 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$46 -52%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage133d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 0 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 -47%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +42%
Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 06 $1 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 06 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026 Feb 06 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $1 +$2 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $1 $0 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $2 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $2 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 04 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 04 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 51% −$45
other 36% $0
crypto 12% −$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? SELL No 65¢ $2 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? BUY No 67¢ $2 68d
Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 117d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 126d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 127d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 127d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 127d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026 SELL Yes 3¢ $0 127d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $1 128d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 128d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 128d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $3 128d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $1 128d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $1 128d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 SELL Yes 35¢ $2 128d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $1 128d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 128d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $2 128d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $2 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.1% -31.3% 50% 25% -20.6%
≤30d 6 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 33% -24.9%
≤90d 7 -26.2% -33.2% 43% 29% -23.1%
all 24 -18.4% -26.2% 42% 25% -57.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 25% -57.0%
10% -33.2% 17% -61.1%
15% -39.7% 17% -64.8%
20% -45.6% 4% -68.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records