Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x1793…4ebb sports 1725 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$452 (+1%) realized +$448 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%930W / 760L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$140
14 days+$135
30 days+$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$597
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +26.2% +14.2% 65% 64% +7.2%
≤30d 296 +6.9% -3.3% 56% 55% -3.8%
≤90d 1051 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 52% -11.4%
all 1690 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 55% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 55% -7.7%
10% -18.2% 54% -16.6%
15% -26.1% 52% -24.6%
20% -33.3% 43% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$448
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses930 / 760
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1690 / 1725
History coverage148d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1690 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina Anhelina Kalinina 62¢ 98¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Tommy Paul 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Luca Nardi 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Zhizhen Zhang 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Botic van de Zandschulp 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang Magdalena Frech 55¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Daniel Altmaier 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $20 −$6 -31%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $5 +$7 +146%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $5 +$9 +180%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $20 +$8 +40%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $10 +$14 +140%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 12 $5 +$9 +180%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 12 $5 +$16 +307%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 61¢ $10 1m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 73¢ $10 2m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 58¢ $10 2m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 42¢ $5 3m
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 67¢ $10 3m
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 63¢ $10 3m
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 83¢ $10 18h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 72¢ $5 18h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 65¢ $5 19h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 67¢ $10 20h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 62¢ $10 22h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 46¢ $5 23h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $10 23h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Ashlyn Krueger 59¢ $10 23h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ $20 23h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 44¢ $5 23h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 63¢ $10 23h
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald BUY Mackenzie McDonald 53¢ $10 23h
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 56¢ $10 23h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $5 23h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken BUY Aleksandar Vukic 60¢ $10 30h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 48¢ $10 30h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 40¢ $5 30h
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 35¢ $5 30h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 65¢ $10 30h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 54¢ $10 30h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 59¢ $10 30h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 57¢ $10 40h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Zeynep Sonmez 67¢ $10 40h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Daniel Evans 28¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.48 · official $79.32 (match) · 2934 history records