Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x178d…118a crypto 1451 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$102 (+1%) realized −$292 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%779W / 672L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$76
14 days+$157
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$301
sports 4% +$11
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +9.2% -1.2% 58% 56% -3.8%
≤30d 299 +1.1% -8.5% 61% 61% -6.4%
≤90d 822 +1.1% -8.5% 58% 58% -8.1%
all 1451 -3.1% -12.4% 54% 54% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 54% -11.4%
10% -20.7% 53% -19.9%
15% -28.4% 43% -27.6%
20% -35.4% 36% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$292
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses779 / 672
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1451 / 1451
History coverage110d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1451 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$93 +832%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $89 −$89 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$9 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $25 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$10 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 20h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 89¢ $69 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 89¢ $16 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records