Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
17 0x1788…0994 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,919 (-4%) realized −$1,919 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,467per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$689est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,873
other 11% +$3,258
world 0% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +70.3% +54.1% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤30d 15 +2.0% -7.7% 53% 53% -20.3%
≤90d 35 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 49% -7.2%
all 35 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 49% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 49% -7.2%
10% -20.9% 49% -16.1%
15% -28.6% 46% -24.2%
20% -35.6% 46% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$2,728) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,365 vs −$1,217 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$1,919
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$689
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,467
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5,080 +$3,570 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $5,695 −$5,611 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $373 −$38 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,678 +$2,213 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $3,482 −$3,433 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $903 −$889 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 30 $202 +$138 +68%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,036 +$1,304 +32%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $79 +$71 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $446 −$439 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 25 $310 −$306 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $634 +$331 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 25 $516 +$973 +188%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $1,240 −$1,227 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $425 +$241 +57%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $432 −$426 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 23 $506 −$499 -99%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) May 23 $505 +$434 +86%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 May 23 $304 −$300 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $374 −$370 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $141 +$233 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $506 −$499 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $213 +$297 +139%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 22 $306 −$301 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $915 +$925 +101%
Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 21 $765 −$755 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $138 +$152 +109%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 19 $4,966 +$3,934 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $2,964 +$2,877 +97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 07 $3,067 −$3,027 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 05 $2,769 −$2,728 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $1,487 −$975 -66%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 17 $2,612 +$2,133 +82%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 08 $84 −$84 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $3,636 +$3,382 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $5,080 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $18 2h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $5,695 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 30¢ $336 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $21 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $353 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $2,678 13d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $3,482 13d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 49¢ $85 24d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 49¢ $139 24d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 49¢ $60 24d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $619 24d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $341 24d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 58¢ $37 24d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 58¢ $3 24d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 59¢ $7 24d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 59¢ $155 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,446 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $87 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $204 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $91 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $64 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $79 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,026 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 51¢ $310 29d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner SELL Movistar KOI 100¢ $1,488 29d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 65¢ $634 29d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI $6 29d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 36¢ $510 29d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 65¢ $1,240 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.50 · official $18.50 (match) · 119 history records