Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1786…5a40
crypto · 37 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$149 -51%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$149 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage9d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 72¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Team Yandex 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Aurora 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BetBoom Team 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$38 +3551%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -27%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $3 −$3 -92%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $13 −$5 -40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $181 −$169 -93%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$2 +38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $3 −$2 -51%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 $0 +11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 62% −$169
crypto 18% +$40
sports 15% −$20
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $39 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +25.5% +13.5% 44% 42% -62.4%
≤30d 36 +25.5% +13.5% 44% 42% -62.4%
≤90d 36 +25.5% +13.5% 44% 42% -62.4%
all 36 +25.5% +13.5% 44% 42% -62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 42% -62.4%
10% +2.7% 28% -66.0%
15% -7.3% 17% -69.3%
20% -16.3% 14% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.76 · official $3.51 · 77 history records