Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
17 0x1783…5fa2 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+4%) realized +$58 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$16
tech 27% +$84
finance 14% +$4
culture 10% −$128
sports 7% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -18.4% -26.2% 67% 33% -17.4%
all 8 +4.0% -5.9% 88% 25% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 25% -5.9%
10% -14.9% 25% -14.9%
15% -23.1% 25% -23.1%
20% -30.7% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$128 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage138d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $104 $97 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k May 22 $131 −$128 -98%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? May 22 $188 +$80 +43%
Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $184 +$4 +2%
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 3 Mar 24 $184 +$4 +2%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 07 $180 +$3 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 19 $164 +$14 +8%
Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of February? Feb 16 $118 +$6 +5%
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Busta Feb 13 $94 +$66 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.00 · official $97.00 (match) · 18 history records