Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x177b…6e61
weather · 582 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$248 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$286 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$233
Realized+$286
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses251 / 299
Open positions32
Markets (closed)550 / 582
History coverage28d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day61.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 32 History 550 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$329
14 days+$192
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 9? No 73¢ 100¢ $22 $30 +$8 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $5 $26 +$21 (+396%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 7¢ 39¢ $4 $23 +$19 (+461%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 9? No 56¢ 100¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? No 85¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? No 66¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? No 47¢ 42¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 61¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? No 69¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? No 80¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? No 84¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+280%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? No 67¢ 70¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? No 68¢ 64¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 82¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? No 56¢ 57¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$7 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $13 +$7 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$13 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$9 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$23 +334%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$12 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$10 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$22 +275%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $8 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$17 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$23 +342%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$10 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 86% +$231
crypto 14% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -15.5% -23.5% 30% 28% +7.7%
≤30d 550 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 25% -3.4%
≤90d 550 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 25% -3.4%
all 550 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 25% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 25% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 20% -12.7%
15% -33.5% 16% -21.1%
20% -40.0% 12% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.73 · official $234.64 (match) · 2021 history records