Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1778…01df crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%36W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$81
sports 1% −$40
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 35% -8.8%
≤30d 48 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 35% -8.8%
≤90d 48 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 35% -8.8%
all 48 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 35% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 35% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 15% -17.6%
15% -28.4% 8% -25.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses36 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage4d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $90 −$38 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$24 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$37 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $152 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $76 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $178 −$16 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$17 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $126 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $253 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $162 +$24 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$77 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$8 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $28 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $24 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $23 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $14 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $29 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $28 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records